It’s starting to look like the Mets are going to go after Derek Lowe to fill their starting pitching needs.

Of course, he’s the best pitcher on the market, but is he worth it? Think about it. Lowe will be 36 in June and if the Mets have to give him a four-year, $60 million contract, the team will be paying him $15 million to pitch when he’s 40. To me, that’s not a good investment.

Sure Lowe will give you over 200 innings a year and will throw to a low-3 ERA, but for how long. Just looking at the recent history of four-year contracts the Mets gave out to pitchers in their mid to late 30s, you can see how the team has gotten burned.

Tom Glavine never regained the Hall of Fame form he had in Atlanta and while he had some good seasons, they were dominate. Pedro Martinez’s arm went out during his second season of a four year contract and Billy Wagner will get paid around $10 million in 2009 to rehab his arm.

This is not to say Lowe will be like those players, but he’s hardly a Hall of Famer, and if history shows us one thing, it’s that older pitchers break down much, much easier.

Personally, I would like to see the Mets re-sign Ollie Perez, who is 27 and has shown no signs of breaking down. A four year contract will put him at 32 when a four year deal ends, since his birthday is in August.

The Mets are better off paying a guy for what he will do, not what he did for other teams.

Posted under Commentary, Free Agency, Hot Stove

LAS VEGAS – Alright, the Mets have gotten their closer and if nothing else happens during the next day at the Bellagio, the Winter Meetings have to be considered a success.That said, there’s still more work to do to make this a successful off-season. Besides their bullpen makeover, which includes an eighth inning setup man, the Mets need at least one starter.With both Pedro Martinez and Oliver Perez free agents, there are obvious holes in the Mets rotation. As of right now, the team seems content to allowing Jon Niese a spot, one that Jerry Manuel said may be bestowed upon him based on his September, rather than earned in Spring Training.

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Posted under Commentary, Free Agency, Hot Stove, Nysd, Winter Meetings

The Mets announced today righthanded pitcher Nelson Figueroa was signed to a one-year minor league deal.

As you may remember the Brooklyn born Figueroa filled in nicely early in the season for the injured Pedro Martinez and then came back up in September to help in the bullpen.

All-in-all, he finished 3-3 with a 4.57 ERA.

The organization also signed righthander Adam Bostick, infielder Andy Green, and catcher Rene Rivera to minor league deals.

Posted under New York Mets

Not too much to report from the weekend, but this story in the Denver Post, mentioned Brian Fuentes will be visiting the Mets soon as part of the free agent process.

Also the Mets have until today to offer arbitration to the free agents they plan on retaining. Of the 11 that filed, Oliver Perez is the most likely to get an offer. Of the others only Pedro Martinez and Damion Easley played significant roles with the Mets last season.

Personally, outside of Perez, I would expect Easley to be offered something, but not Pedro, because the Mets would be in a pickle if he accepts.

Posted under Hot Stove, Link, New York Mets

Let’s just say for the sake of the argument the Mets sign Derek Lowe. We know they aren’t going to break the bank in Yankee proportions, and it comes down to bringing back Oliver Perez at the reported number of $75 million or Brian Fuentes at $44 million and a handful of relievers.

What’s your choice?

I would take Fuentes and the relievers because it would solve the team’s greatest problem, and for the final starter I’d give Jon Niese a chance, or at worst, bring back Pedro Martinez as the fifth starter.

You know what you’re going to get from Perez, and the Mets could probably get the same from Niese and Martinez and whatever emergency starter they throw out there. That includes the angst of uncertainty.

Posted under New York Mets

Pat Burrell turned down $22 million over two years from Philadelphia and CC Sabathia is about to turn down over $100 million from Milwaukee.

All signs are pointing toward the Yankees getting Sabathia. They don’t appear to have a ceiling. The same can’t be said about the Mets. They’ll have money coming off the books with Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez and Moises Alou going, but they’ll be giving raises to David Wright and Jose Reyes.

Their payroll last year was $143 million, and I don’t see it going much higher.

We can discuss all of that tonight.

Posted under New York Mets

The following Mets have filed for free agency as of today:

Today (Nov. 1):
-RHP Orlando Hernandez: Nice knowing you.

Friday (Oct. 31):
-RHP Pedro Martinez: Would want him back as a fifth starter.
-Moises Alou: Say good-bye, but you know Omar.
-RHP Tony Armas: No interest.
-RHP Luis Ayala: Would re-sign for bullpen depth, but if it doesn’t work out no real loss.
-INF Ramon Martinez: Would be interested for bench depth, but no worries if it didn’t happen.
-LHP Ricardo Rincon: Being lefty helps him.

Thursday (Oct. 30):
-LHP Oliver Perez: You know what he is. Will be pricey.
-INF Damion Easley: I’ve always liked him, but don’t see him returning.
-RHP Matt Wise: Good-bye.

Posted under New York Mets

As the Phillies were rolling around on the infield last night much to the dismay of most Mets fans, take solace in that 2008 is officially over. The last out of the World Series officially brings with it the start of the 2009 season, although the Mets have been thinking for the past month about what went wrong and what to do about it.

It’s time to build GM Omar Minaya’s shopping list for the Hot Stove Season.

Here’s my list:

1. Starter #1: Fixing the bullpen begins first with fixing the rotation. They need to add a starter to begin shaving innings from the bullpen total. They will attempt to re-sign Oliver Perez and add a solid, but not spectacular starter such as Derek Lowe.

2. Closer: The Phillies proved a dominant closer is better than a closer-by-committee format. Brian Fuentes appears first on their list. The money is too steep for Francisco Rodriguez.

3. Starter #2: The Mets need fifth starter. They could go in the market, they could gamble with Jon Niese or they could bring back Pedro Martinez.

4. Adding bullpen depth: The Mets’ bullpen blew 29 saves, but Billy Wagner only coughed it up seven times. There were a lot of collapses in the seventh and eighth innings. Help is needed.

5. Bench (right-handed hitting outfielder): Fernando Tatis should be re-signed, I could go with the platoon of he and Daniel Murphy. Adding a proven bat would be beneficial, but not at the expense of adding pitching.

6. Re-signing Carlos Delgado: It’s doubtful Delgado will duplicate last season’s second half, but there shouldn’t be that big a dropoff. I don’t understand the eagerness of some to trade him. Afterall, for a team with holes, trading him adds another. Delgado does have a no-trade clause so it will cost something to get him to waive it.

Posted under New York Mets

It goes without saying the Scott Kazmir trade was disastrous for the Mets. But, imagine for a moment, the trade worked and Rick Peterson was able to fix the very damaged Victor Zambrano.

Let’s say the Mets turned it around in 2004 and made a run at the playoffs. They were four games under .500 at the time of the trade and finished the season 20 games under. That brought the end of Jim Duquette as general manager and ushered in Omar Minaya.

Would Minaya have come if the Mets finished that season as a competitive team? With Minaya came Pedro Martinez, then Carlos Beltran, then Carlos Delgado. It’s interesting to wonder what might have happened had Zambrano panned out.

We all know what happened with Kazmir.

Posted under New York Mets

When you come down to it, it’s not a “must have’’ list of the Mets’ own free-agents. Sure, they’d like lefty Oliver Perez back, but nobody really expects it, and truth is they can live without him.

The follow is a list of the Mets’ free-agents to be and those players arbitration eligible.

FREE AGENTS

-LF Moises Alou: Say good-night, Moises.

-INF Marlon Anderson: Nice knowing you.

-RHP Luis Ayala: Could be brought back.

-OF Endy Chavez: Could be brought back, but never as a starter.

-2B Damion Easley: I like him, but Mets should go younger on the bench.

-RHP Orlando Hernandez: Time to write his autobiography.

-RHP Pedro Martinez: Doesn’t want to retire, but is only fifth starter caliber right now.

-2B Ramon Martinez: Made impact, but age won’t let Mets consider him for job.

-LHP Oliver Perez: Wants mega bucks. Doesn’t deserve them.

-LHP Ricardo Rincon: Won’t be missed.

-OF Fernando Tatis: Deserves to return.

-RHP Matt Wise: Good-bye.

ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE

The following are arbitration eligible: RF Ryan Church, LHP Pedro Feliciano, RHP Aaron Heilman, RHP Duaner Sanchez, RHP John Maine and OF Angel Pagan.

Posted under On the Table