It’s starting to look like the Mets are going to go after Derek Lowe to fill their starting pitching needs.

Of course, he’s the best pitcher on the market, but is he worth it? Think about it. Lowe will be 36 in June and if the Mets have to give him a four-year, $60 million contract, the team will be paying him $15 million to pitch when he’s 40. To me, that’s not a good investment.

Sure Lowe will give you over 200 innings a year and will throw to a low-3 ERA, but for how long. Just looking at the recent history of four-year contracts the Mets gave out to pitchers in their mid to late 30s, you can see how the team has gotten burned.

Tom Glavine never regained the Hall of Fame form he had in Atlanta and while he had some good seasons, they were dominate. Pedro Martinez’s arm went out during his second season of a four year contract and Billy Wagner will get paid around $10 million in 2009 to rehab his arm.

This is not to say Lowe will be like those players, but he’s hardly a Hall of Famer, and if history shows us one thing, it’s that older pitchers break down much, much easier.

Personally, I would like to see the Mets re-sign Ollie Perez, who is 27 and has shown no signs of breaking down. A four year contract will put him at 32 when a four year deal ends, since his birthday is in August.

The Mets are better off paying a guy for what he will do, not what he did for other teams.

Posted under Commentary, Free Agency, Hot Stove

It looks like the Mets are taking their time looking for a closer, allowing the market to come to them, rather than big against themselves.

Joel Sherman wrote in the Post, the team is worried about giving four-year contracts to wither Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes, because they got burned by Billy Wagner’s Presidential Term deal he signed before the 2006 season.

Also the team seems to be content to wait, especially if JJ Putz comes on the market, further solidifying their position, being the only big players in the closer market.

I would think the Mets will wait until the Winter Meeting before getting this done, since the agents will come to them rather than the other way around.

Posted under New York Mets

On his blog at 1050, Coutinho gives odd on who will be closer for the Mets next season.

No real surprises, but an interesting read.

A sample:

“If K-Rod’s entourage would accept a three year deal with a club option I tend to think this could get done. The reason is if the Mets want to insure the contract, companies only insure the first 3 years of baseball contracts these days but there are more issues here. Some people have indicated K-Rod has lost a bit off his fastball and worry about all the innings he has pitched the past 2 seasons. I am not one of those people. His 1.29 WHIP coupled with the fact AL DH lineups hit only .216 against him confirms his pedigree as one of the top 3 closers in the sport.”

Posted under New York Mets