It’s starting to look like the Mets are going to go after Derek Lowe to fill their starting pitching needs.

Of course, he’s the best pitcher on the market, but is he worth it? Think about it. Lowe will be 36 in June and if the Mets have to give him a four-year, $60 million contract, the team will be paying him $15 million to pitch when he’s 40. To me, that’s not a good investment.

Sure Lowe will give you over 200 innings a year and will throw to a low-3 ERA, but for how long. Just looking at the recent history of four-year contracts the Mets gave out to pitchers in their mid to late 30s, you can see how the team has gotten burned.

Tom Glavine never regained the Hall of Fame form he had in Atlanta and while he had some good seasons, they were dominate. Pedro Martinez’s arm went out during his second season of a four year contract and Billy Wagner will get paid around $10 million in 2009 to rehab his arm.

This is not to say Lowe will be like those players, but he’s hardly a Hall of Famer, and if history shows us one thing, it’s that older pitchers break down much, much easier.

Personally, I would like to see the Mets re-sign Ollie Perez, who is 27 and has shown no signs of breaking down. A four year contract will put him at 32 when a four year deal ends, since his birthday is in August.

The Mets are better off paying a guy for what he will do, not what he did for other teams.

Posted under Commentary, Free Agency, Hot Stove

Joel Sherman wrote on his blog, the Mets offered Aaron Heilman to the Rockies for Huston Street, but Colorado refused and countered with Heilman and Pedro Feliciano.

Although they said no, they could go back and revist the trade at another time. Sherman goes on to say, the Mets want to have Street as an eighth inning man because of the experience as a closer. They learned a lesson from Billy Wagner. If a closer goes down they want someone who will be able to take over the ninth. Street gives them that.

Posted under Hot Stove, New York Mets

It looks like the Mets are taking their time looking for a closer, allowing the market to come to them, rather than big against themselves.

Joel Sherman wrote in the Post, the team is worried about giving four-year contracts to wither Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes, because they got burned by Billy Wagner’s Presidential Term deal he signed before the 2006 season.

Also the team seems to be content to wait, especially if JJ Putz comes on the market, further solidifying their position, being the only big players in the closer market.

I would think the Mets will wait until the Winter Meeting before getting this done, since the agents will come to them rather than the other way around.

Posted under New York Mets

Besides the inning where Dan Graziano says the Mets will go after one of the Big Three [K-Rod, Brian Fuentes, or Kerry Wood], the Star-Ledger columnist says the rest of the Extreme Makeover: Bullpen Edition will consist of strikeout pitchers.

To quote:

“The Mets’ bullpen in 2008 was loaded with finesse pitchers who didn’t have swing-and-miss pitches. Billy Wagner was their only real strikeout reliever, and once he was gone it was a bunch of guys (Feliciano, Schoeneweis, Heilman, Smith, Ayala) who pitched to contact — often with disastrous results. That’s why they were so excited, late in the season, about the emergence of Brian Stokes, whose stuff was the kind of stuff that can be blown by hitters and generate strikeouts.”

Graziano mentions Brian Stokes, Eddie Kunz, and Bobby Parnell as the only holdovers.

Posted under New York Mets

The Daily News reports the Mets are looking to compete with the Yankees for CC Sabathia. In the three by-line article, the News baseball staff says Omar Minaya will look at how the free agent market pans out and may make an offer.

To quote:

“Meanwhile, Omar Minaya was dicussing a trade for a pitcher with a GM but said he would first have to see how Sabathia’s free agency was progressing, a baseball executive said. A Mets official subsequently wouldn’t deny interest in Sabathia.

“Such a deal with the Mets likely would require backloading some of Sabathia’s salary, at least until Carlos Delgado’s $12 million and Billy Wagner’s $10.5 million salaries for 2009 are cleared.”

For me, getting Sabathia would be a real coup for the Mets and if they do, Minaya will have a little less pressure on himself to totally revamp the bullpen, even though I expect major changes out there no matter what.

Posted under New York Mets

As the Phillies were rolling around on the infield last night much to the dismay of most Mets fans, take solace in that 2008 is officially over. The last out of the World Series officially brings with it the start of the 2009 season, although the Mets have been thinking for the past month about what went wrong and what to do about it.

It’s time to build GM Omar Minaya’s shopping list for the Hot Stove Season.

Here’s my list:

1. Starter #1: Fixing the bullpen begins first with fixing the rotation. They need to add a starter to begin shaving innings from the bullpen total. They will attempt to re-sign Oliver Perez and add a solid, but not spectacular starter such as Derek Lowe.

2. Closer: The Phillies proved a dominant closer is better than a closer-by-committee format. Brian Fuentes appears first on their list. The money is too steep for Francisco Rodriguez.

3. Starter #2: The Mets need fifth starter. They could go in the market, they could gamble with Jon Niese or they could bring back Pedro Martinez.

4. Adding bullpen depth: The Mets’ bullpen blew 29 saves, but Billy Wagner only coughed it up seven times. There were a lot of collapses in the seventh and eighth innings. Help is needed.

5. Bench (right-handed hitting outfielder): Fernando Tatis should be re-signed, I could go with the platoon of he and Daniel Murphy. Adding a proven bat would be beneficial, but not at the expense of adding pitching.

6. Re-signing Carlos Delgado: It’s doubtful Delgado will duplicate last season’s second half, but there shouldn’t be that big a dropoff. I don’t understand the eagerness of some to trade him. Afterall, for a team with holes, trading him adds another. Delgado does have a no-trade clause so it will cost something to get him to waive it.

Posted under New York Mets

I remember the conversation with Jerry Manuel as if it were yesterday. We were in Washington and I asked him about Eddie Kunz. (For the sake of the argument, I know he got roughed up).

How much worse could Kunz be than the older arms blowing saves for the Mets? Manuel agreed, and said maybe it was time for Kunz to pitch in a pressure situation. He didn’t get a save opportunity for several days, until Manuel had no choice but to go to him.

The amateur psychologist in me said Kunz’s confidence took a hit when opportunity after opportunity passed without him getting the ball. And, that shaken ego was ripped when he got a chance he would inevitably blow.

Here we are, August in Washington against the lowly Nationals, and the Mets were afraid to go to somebody on their roster they claim to be in their plans.

Fast forward to last Sunday, when the Rays, three outs from the World Series, went with David Price, who is a merely 23. You could see his teething ring next to the rosin bag, but he was out there throwing heat.

And succeeding.

Now, I don’t know how good Kunz will be. I can’t say the same for Bobby Parnell. But, if they are as good as they Mets trust they’ll be, then give them the chance to prove it. That’s better than to throw millions of dollars at Francisco Rodriguez, whom I believe in a couple of years will be where Billy Wagner is now – and that’s being unable to throw.

Spend the money on going after a starter and acquiring some depth in the bridge to the closer role.

Posted under New York Mets

The Mets were 55-38 under Jerry Manuel, a record good enough to bring him back. GM Omar Minaya is meeting with ownership today about Manuel’s contract. An announcement could be made this week, perhaps as soon as tomorrow.

Minaya on Manuel: “Jerry did a very good job in a tough situation, overcoming injuries to [John] Maine and Billy [Wagner]. … I was very pleased with the job he did.”

I’ve been saying Manuel should return. Agree? Disagree?

Posted under New York Mets

The Mets blew 29 save opportunities so far this season, and with them, perhaps a chance at the playoffs. Adding a top notch closer such as Francisco Rodriguez would improve the bullpen, but not put it over the top.

Billy Wagner blew seven save opportunities, but even worse was the bridge leading up to him. It was more than just a bad season.

Here’s how I see the pen:

-Billy Wagner: Won’t pitch for the Mets again. No brainer. However, he will get paid $11 million by them, and that will inhibit what they do this winter. I don’t see them paying both Wagner and Rodriguez.

-Aaron Heilman: They’ve resisted trading him the past two winters. They should pull the trigger if they get an offer this time. Heilman wants to start and since the Mets won’t give him that opportunity, they should try to get what they can. If they wanted to give Heilman a chance at being the fifth starter, I’d entertain it because it is clear this bullpen thing isn’t working out.

-Scott Schoeneweis: I can’t believe they gave him three years. (I mistakenly said he was done after this year. He’s signed through 2009).

-Joe Smith: Has his moments, both good and bad. Will be brought back.

-Pedro Feliciano: I’ve always been cool on him for some reason, even when he’s pitched well. I think they’ll bring him back.

-Luis Ayala: He saved a few games. Big deal. I don’t see him as the answer at closer. I do see him coming back.

-Carlos Muniz: Wouldn’t miss him.

-Ricardo Rincon: Ditto.

-Duaner Sanchez: He doesn’t have his fastball anymore. Certainly not a set-up man or closer type anymore. Not a loss if they don’t bring him back.

-Brian Stokes: More good appearances than bad. I’d like to see him back.

-Nelson Figueroa: Feel good story early this season. Very hittable.

-Brandon Knight: Pitched decently. Long man?

-Bobby Parnell: Can bring the heat. Let’s see what he can do in spring training.

Posted under New York Mets

Aaron Heilman wants to be a starter and the Mets needed a starter for tonight. They came up with Brandon Knight.

Why not finally give Heilman his shot?

Well, for one thing, he hasn’t proven he can get hitters out in one inning, much less five or six. He’s only thrown 1 1/3 innings this month. Obviously, Jerry Manuel has no faith in him, and consequently, Heilman has no faith in himself.

Heilman struggled much of this season and he had one chance to piece together his fragile confidence, and that was when Billy Wagner went down. Manuel gave Heilman a chance to close a game and he blew it. Manuel then pulled the plug on Heilman in the closer role.

You want to crush whatever confidence he had left, and that’s the way to do it.

Anyway, Heilman was good in his role for the Mets, but he never seemed to recover from giving up the homer to Molina in the 2006 NLCS. He said all the right things, but something was missing.

The Mets resisted dealing Heilman the past two winters, but I don’t see that this time around. If they are offered a package they’ll bite. They have to.

Posted under New York Mets